An important aspect in the world of data analytics is the difference between correlation and causation. Oftentimes, even experts in the field might make the mistake of interpreting correlation as causation due to how closely related they are.
How can you avoid being confused by the two terms and prevent jumping to wrong conclusions?
Also Read: How to Tell Stories with Data
Discover how correlation and causation hold different meanings in data analytics.
Mistaking one for the other can lead to flawed conclusions and incorrectly guided decisions.
What is Correlation
Correlation refers to the statistical relationship that two variables have. It signifies the extent to which one variable changes with respect to the other. The correlation coefficient, ranging from –1 to 1, is used to describe the strength of the relationship.
- A value close to 1 implies a strong positive correlation (as one increases, the other increases).
- A value close to 0 implies little to no correlation.
- A value close to -1 implies a strong negative correlation (as one increases, the other decreases).
For instance, a study might find a correlation between the sale of ice cream and car accidents. While there can be a statistical relationship, it would not imply the two are related.
What is Causation
Causation suggests that one event directly influences another. It establishes a cause—and-effect relationship, i.e., a change in one variable directly results in a change in the other.
Thus, proving causation goes beyond simple analysis and requires a deeper exploration involving expertise in the domain and more data.
A notable example is how long it took to prove smoking causes lung cancer. The proof went beyond statistical correlation and relied upon controlled studies, repeated validation, and biological evidence.
Why People Confuse the Two Term
There are many reasons some people may confuse correlation for causation. They are:
- Spurious Correlation: Two variables might be correlated simply by coincidence. For example, the number of car sales might appear to correlate with drowning accidents, but they are unrelated.
- Third Variable: A third variable might be influencing the two correlated variables. For example, ice cream sales and drowning incidents might increase proportionately. But the data could have been collected in the summer, making the warm weather a confounding variable.
- Reverse Causality: Correlation does not directly specify the direction of influence. Higher education is often linked to an individual’s income level. But income can also influence the level of education one has received.
Thus, being aware of these reasons is important for data science.
How to Distinguish Between Correlation and Causation
There are many ways to understand whether causation exists beyond simple correlation.
- Having Domain Knowledge: It starts with a deep understanding of the field and underlying mechanisms. This can clarify relationships.
- Frequent Experimentation: Randomized A/B testing isolates variables and establishes whether causation exists.
Following these strategies helps make well-informed, data-driven decisions.
Conclusion: Don’t Confuse Correlation for Causation
Correlation can help identify trends and patterns in the data. However, establishing causation requires domain expertise, controlled experimentation, and more.
Understanding the nuances between the two terms ensures that data-driven decisions are grounded in reality.
